Thursday, June 20, 2019

William O. Beeman response to "After Iran’s Drone Attack, Trump Says He ‘Would Not Stand for It’" NY Times June 20, 2019

There are many important considerations in this incident. 1. It is claimed that the drone was shot down in international air space. Closer inspection of this claim shows that it was in fact very close to Iranian air space--virtually on the border. It is not improbable that the drone first violated Iranian air space, and then flew out into the international space. This is consistent with the United States baiting Iran into violation. This needs to be carefully investigated. 2. Trump, based on intelligence briefings, suggested that this could have been a rogue action by the IRGC. This is highly probable. Whether "rogue" or not, such an action would have been pre-authorized if the drone did in fact violate Iranian air space. There is definitely room for a mistake in personal judgment in this case. 3. The IRGC has recently had its wings clipped by the Iranian government. Many of its resources have been transferred to the regular Iranian Army. This has created a great deal of anger in the IRGC. But from the standpoint of the US, this is in fact a positive response of the Iranian government to US and International demands. 4. Along these lines, the IRGC was initially created to prevent a counter-coup to the Revolution of 1978-79 as a para-military force. It has grown to be a severe problem within Iran itself. Though the Iranian government won't admit it, they are concerned about its influence. This action could be a protest from the IRGC to embarrass Tehran.

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